The Future of Driving
The future is looking very bright. The introduction of cars like Tesla who is notorious for its self-driving capabilities, is taking the wheel in the world of driving. In 50, 75 or 100 years time, will there be anyone actually driving the cars themselves or will it purely be the artificial intelligence we see hints of today. Forget flying cars, we haven't conquered the roads yet, but we are close!
Will you have to give up driving soon?
The answer is a resounding, "maybe." There are thought-provoking arguments on both sides of the issue; and it remains to be seen what will come in the foreseeable future. One thing is certain: driverless cars will introduce a new paradigm of transportation, one which will only expand as time goes by. It may get to a point where human driving interrupts A.I driving and could cause more unneeded problems.
Let's begin with a look at the issues involved at the individual car level, and then go on to consider some broader implications.
What will driverless cars do when they reach mass-market status?
The first question that comes to mind is, "what will happen to people who have jobs requiring driving?" Vehicles are a requirement for many professions such as delivery drivers and transport service drivers, including taxis, buses. Even many sector jobs, like doctors, nurses, dentists, the police and others need their cars.
Another topic to think about is emergency vehicles. Today, emergency vehicles tend to ignore some road rules, in order to reach their destination much quicker. When and if the world of A.I takes over, will emergency vehicles be adapted to deal with these sort of things or will they remain human-only vehicles due to the high importance? The last thing people will want to a malfunction of an emergency vehicle, which needs to reach a patient as fast as possible. One mistake could be the difference of life and death.
The first thought might be that any profession tied to driving will see a huge drop in demand. The second thought is that those professions might have an opportunity for transformation, assuming their workers are willing to get retrained. But how can a driverless car deliver a pizza? Some food delivery companies are experimenting with drones (which are autonomous); others are figuring out ways to alter the delivery process.
How bright is the future looking for cars?
The industry sector most likely to see a rapid decline in demand is the auto industry, particularly the high-end niche of luxury cars. The fact that so many people are willing to pay tens of thousands of dollars for these luxury items provides an important source of capital for carmakers. When they lose this revenue source, they'll have to find new avenues of profit. It is not hard to imagine that some carmakers will move into the robot-making business or the fuel-cell business, or even try to provide a digital network for driverless cars.
Cutting out the middleman: Driverless cars and ownership
On the other end of the spectrum-and with equal potential impact-will be changes in car ownership. Currently, most people buy cars because they need a source of transportation. But, the world is changing in a way that makes it increasingly attractive to forgo ownership and to rely on ridesharing services like Uber or Lyft. Given the increasing sophistication of automated cars over time, there will certainly be many people who will prefer to use these services rather than own a car at all.
This change will not happen overnight. Many people like the feeling of actually driving their own car; they feel connected to it and they can use it as a personal statement of identity and taste. As far as environmental issues go, it's true that Uber and Lyft are more polluting than driverless cars would be; but that will not last long. It's easy to imagine a future with both driverless cars and electric vehicles.
What about the traffic accidents?
Building on this idea of using autonomous cars for ridesharing, there is one major problem: traffic accidents. There's no question that driverless cars will be safer than cars with humans behind the wheel. The average American driver experiences a traffic accident every 10 years; deaths go way down when you remove human error from the equation. But this doesn't mean that accidents will cease to exist at all. There is still a chance of hacking, and there are also theoretical concerns that self-driving cars will give people less incentive to stay within speed limits and so on.
The solution to this problem is to make automated cars so reliable that they're incapable of breaking down. There are various ways that technology is getting closer and closer to this possibility, but it will be a long time before driverless cars become the norm on world roads.
What are the Global Implications?
What happens when you export this technology to other countries? This is the scenario that makes everybody in the automotive industry nervous. Throughout the Third World, many people are just getting access to cars. In order for transportation technologies to gain a foothold, some amount of infrastructure must be in place. For instance, driverless cars theoretically require very-good digital networks; and these networks can't be built overnight.
There are also concerns about the industry side of things. Ford and GM have been working on driverless cars for a while now; but their efforts were designed to serve the American market. Automakers in other countries might go a different direction. It's possible that driverless cars will be targeted at developing markets, where transportation infrastructure is less complicated and less expensive than in the U.S.
Conclusion
When and if the switch happens, there will be big and small pros and cons for each. Driverless cars will make many individuals' lives easier however many individuals will also lose their jobs. Then you need to think about what will happen to emergency vehicles. How will they work and adapt?
Would a fully A.I controlled world even require driving tests anymore? Will these fully A.I controlled vehicles know to slow down when riding over a bump, or stop at a bridge toll?
In the best outcome, you will be able to switch between A.I and human driving to deal with difficult situations that the A.I may not have adapted to yet.
What does the future of driving look like?